Study: “Evaluating the Impact of a Disruption in Publicly Provided Contraceptive Supply on Fertility and Health Outcomes in the Philippines”
PI: Salas, John Michael Ian Sioson
Affiliation: University of California, Irvine
Funding Partner: IIE
Project Dates:
Start: 2012
End: 2013
Data Source(s): Family Planning Surveys; DHS; Vital Statistics; Census; Contraceptive Distribution and Logistics Management Information System
Method(s): Natural experiment; Province fixed effects; Woman fixed effects
Geographic Location: Philippines

Description: This research explores new evidence on the role of subsidized contraceptives in influencing fertility behavior. It draws on two types of disruptions that affected the public supply of free contraceptives in the Philippines: a sharp reduction in contraceptives due to the phase-out of contraceptive donations to the country, coupled with a government policy that shirked public funding to fill the supply shortfall; and substantial fluctuations in the shipment of free contraceptives to the country’s provinces brought about by supply chain issues. The findings show that birth rates are responsive to both broad and transitory changes in public contraceptive supply: Provinces that experienced big declines in the supply of free contraceptives also had big increases (or small decreases) in birth rates, while temporary supply drops (increases) were followed by rising (falling) birth rates. It also identifies poor, less-educated, and rural women as the groups who are least able to cope with short-term gaps in public contraceptive supply.

Research Outputs:
Salas, J.M. Ian. (2012). Consequences of withdrawal: Free condoms and birth rates in the Philippines. (University of the Philippines School of Economics Discussion Paper No. 2012-20).